Book Sales Surge in May and June. That’s Bad News for Booksellers.

Publishers were gifted unexpected good news last month after a painful March and April that saw book sales get absolutely vaporized (along with most of the retail economy). That smoking crater in the sales calendar led to a lot of (completely justified) hand wringing about a slow and painful recovery, and while the sky always seems to be falling in the book industry, the indefinite closure of brick-and-mortar bookstores, supply chain nightmares, and the decision by Amazon to prioritize essential inventory and delay book shipments sure looked like the type of blow that could leave long-lasting damage to a wobbly industry coming off a down year in 2019.

So imagine publishers’ collective delight when May numbers rolled in and showed that sales had not only stabilized, but, according to NPD data, shot up 0.5% YTD compared to 2019. Numbers slumped mid-June, but a strong push late in the month still has sales up 0.3% over last year. And while some of this (maybe even much of it) may simply be pent up orders from supply-chain issues and delayed spring sales, a look at the segments seeing the most growth indicate the demand might be real. Hobby and craft books, self-improvement titles, and, unsurprisingly, childrens’ educational titles all did gangbusters, which aligns nicely with the demands of a quarantined, remote-learning readership. (For anyone publishing kids’ cookbooks, enjoy the good times.) Late May and June then saw a huge spike in diversity-related titles tied to the BLM movement, especially How to Be an Antiracist. A Hunger Games prequel landing in late May certainly didn’t hurt things either.

But for all of the happy dancing publishers are doing (well, those that aren’t publishing international travel books), this is decidedly unpleasant news for independent booksellers and B&N, because this surge essentially happened without them. Nearly all of these sales happened online and/or via big box stores like Walmart, Target, and Costco. And while some publishers did see a nice spike via customer direct sales on their own websites, the real winner seems to be, yep, Amazon.

The effect this all may have on B&N is even murkier. While mandated store closings provided a wonderful opportunity to fast track the much-ballyhooed reconfiguration of space and clear out stale inventory, it also meant doors were shuttered during Easter and Mother’s Day. Not surprisingly, revenues are down considerably. And with a new round of shutdowns looking more and more likely every day, there may be more locked doors in the near future. (Anecdotally, I popped into a very empty neighborhood B&N last week and asked the store manager how the reconfiguration was going. “Well, we’re talking to customers a lot more,” she said. “Because no one knows where anything is.”)

The one wrinkle in all of this is Andy Hunter’s recently launched Bookshop.org, which may or may not end up being a lifeline for indies. Few companies not named Zoom or GrubHub have profited as substantially off the pandemic, and Hunter has to be counting his lucky stars on the timing of this venture. Designed to provide an alternate option to Amazon, the site connects local indie stores with online buyers and gives an affordable and easy-to-launch e-commerce option to bookstores that typically wouldn’t have the resources to run one (or attract a large audience) on their own. Launched earlier this year, it’s exceeded most expectations, generating $40 million in sales so far this year (Hunter had originally hoped to hit that mark in 30 months). That said, less than 10% of that has gone back to independent stores (most titles are shipped directly out of Ingram warehouses), and it remains to be seen whether sales will slow once buyers can return to buying in person. Indies better hope so. Otherwise they’ve just thrown their support behind yet another online option at the dawn of what may turn out to be the post-retail era.

What does all of this mean for publishers? Well, first and foremost, get customer-direct options up and running or optimized. When ship times jumped to more than a month via Amazon, customers were scrambling for other options and, at least anecdotally, publishers reported an increase in direct sales (which typically isn’t captured via NPD sales data). If supply chains end up disrupted again, there may be future opportunities. Beyond that, prepare for Amazon’s market share to increase beyond what it is now, with a commiserate squeeze on terms. Finally, hope that big box stores don’t represent the next growth sector. Huge buys, short shelf times, and colossal returns for thin margins is not a game most independent publishers can play consistently. Let’s just hope that the indies can bounce back and offer a number of purchasing options. Stay-at-home orders and social distancing have apparently reignited a demand for books, especially those with a tilt toward self-improvement (though pandemic fatigue looks to be tilting things back to fiction). That’s wonderful news for publishers. But all of those buyers are going to need a place to buy, and few will benefit in the long run if the only option becomes Amazon.